Nik's Laws: Don't Spit in Eyes

Hey, Bibi.

That moment when terrorism becomes guerrilla warfare

Are we all clear on what's happening here?

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/23/us-northkorea-cyberattack-idUSKBN0K107920141223

http://theweek.com/article/index/274145/why-america-would-be-foolish-to-wage-a-cyber-war-against-north-korea

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-30587837

http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2014/12/23/china-likely-irked-by-north-koreas-sony-hack

Finally.

Yes, finally.

Five Rules to Guide Syria Policy

1. Don't let Iran win the Syrian civil war
2. Don't fall into the trap of being the World Police. Athens, Constantinople, Rome, and England already tried that
3. No matter which Syrian faction you choose to ally with, 75% of the country will hate and resent and fight you. Don't pick sides
4. Because of #2, the only acceptable justification for intervention is on humanitarian grounds
5. Syrian peace is not a vital US interest. It IS a vital interest of Syria's neighbors: Lebanon, Jordan, Iran, Iraq, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and (gasp) Israel. They are getting flooded with refugees. They are at risk of receiving SCUDs. They are at risk of spill-over instability. They should lead any intervention. They should build humanitarian supply/evacuation lines. They should host any refugees (humanely). To the extent they don't want to participate, they should fund intervention. If they lack specific technical capabilities, they should request US assistance. The UN, thanks to Russia and China is useless. Don't waste your time with that

It may very well be that the best response is, until five-way peace agreements are signed, a total economic, commercial, and travel embargo of the country, supplemented by an oil-for-food style humanitarian plan, led and executed by Syria's neighbors.

Turkey, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia in particular are vying for recognition that they have "turned a corner" from their insular, murky, iron-fisted past into first-world regional powers. They should view the current situation as a grand opportunity to demonstrate they are world-class by acting world-class.

Rule #3 aside, and broader than the Syrian civil war, is the Kurd issue. Creating a Kurdish state or independent self-administered region would create stability and solve numerous simmering conflicts all at once. Kurdish regions of Turkey, Syria, and Iraq have proven largely stable, predictable, and trustworthy. They are able to generate relatively stable governance structures and effective economic activity even under very poor circumstances. Turkey, Iraq, and Syria need to mature their approach from current passive-aggressiveness to acknowledging that current borders simply don't reflect the cultural and national landscape. There is something for each of them to gain by ceding political control, economic control, and even territory in the interest of furthering regional peace and stability. While any mideastern solution seems to cause 20 new mideastern conflicts, this one might be a risk worth taking.

Talking People to Death

From this week's NY Times:

"[Netanyahu's offer to freeze colonization of contested Palestinian territories] was aimed either at keeping talks with the Palestinians alive and his right-wing coalition partners in check, or at seeking to shift the burden of failure to the Palestinians and escape blame should the talks wither and die. - NY Times 10/12/10

They said "should" but clearly they meant "when." Why the hell did they re-start colonization anyway?? Oh, yeah, so they could offer to stop ... again.

This, to me, summarizes the whole problem. The involved parties, including the Israeli, Palestinian, and US governments as well as the Jewish diaspora, the militant mullahs, the Syrian and Iranian militaries, the arab-royals, the money-siphoning nonprofit organizations, and all the other agents provocateurs have no intention of saving the patient. They just want to make sure they're not blamed for it's death.

Lest they forget among all their strategic positioning (in soft chairs at fancy resort hotels), ego-stroking (whilst sipping tea on private jet they didn't pay for), and diplomatically chortling (while enjoying 5-star cuisine on finer china), there are people dying because of their delays. Some of those people are starving in camps. Others are getting blown to bits during their daily commute. Others are so hopeless and angry about their future that they're letting Bin Laden's clowns whip them into homicidal/suicidal furies. Others still are dying atop Humvees.

Yet everyone just continues talking. One step left, then one step right. Never moving forward lest they accidentally resolve the issue and lose their relevance. If that happened, who would pay for their fancy limos and massive security detail? Who would fund their next European vacation?

Hey Bibi, Hill, Abu! Hey nationalists! Hey settlers! Hey martyrs! Hey donors-to-the-cause! Hey talking heads! You're all wrong. You're all culpable. You're all criminally negligent. Let history reflect that as your true legacy.

Yeah! What HE Said: Fidel on Communism

"The Cuban model doesn't even work for us anymore"
- Fidel Castro, at a smallish lunch table, 2010

http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2010/09/fidel-cuban-model-doesnt-even-work-for-us-anymore/62602


Nuff said.

Follow Up: I Keep Waiting for Somone to Say "Joke"

Stuff ain't cool unless it's secretive. See how it worked for Nixon? He was about as un-cool as they come until ... well, you know.

In that vein, the Nobel Peace Price nominees are kept secret for 50 years in order to avoid offending anyone ... and to respect Alfred's will, in which he ordered that the Peace Prize be the "coolest" of all prizes offered.

So we'll never know which deserving candidates really got snookered in this year's run-off for said prize. In lieu, more than one reader/friend (you know who you are) has suggested I come up with my own list. I'd never be so presumptuous as to assume I knew better ;-) but here are just a few names I might have offered if asked:

The US Military - How many lives HAS the US Military saved? Seriously, folks, is there any other entity on the planet who has actually DONE more to quell conflict? Every life is valuable - everyone is someone's son or mom. These guys are the only group on the planet willing to make the REALLY tough decisions about life - their own and those of others. If this is too big a group for ya, pick the current leaders - Gates, McChrystal, Mullen.

Ronald Reagan - Jeez, where to begin. Not only did he take the first steps to de-escalate the Cold War, he finished the job he started. He understood this had to be done from a position of power. Along the way, he left us with guiding principles that serve us well even today. "Trust but verify" would get us a lot further along with the Evil Leaders League than sending the Clinton twins for photo-ops.

The faceless, nameless, and thankless who dedicate their lives selflessly to promote peace one person at a time - Each of us knows one, but no one can see them all.

SOS Children’s Villages - In their own words, the "world's largest charity dedicated to orphaned and abandoned children"

Morgan Tsvangirai - Pick your metaphor. He put his life on the line. He went all-in. He took a leap of faith. He spoke truth to hideous power. He stood toe to toe ... and continues to do so in the most peaceful, calm manner possible.

Mordechai Vanunu - On a one-man lifelong crusade against military escalation.

Japan - For quietly fostering over 50 years of peace in Asia

Romeo Dallaire - Betcha don't know this one. Look 'em up.

Bono - If you don't know this one, your name must be Osama.

Wei Jingsheng - Oft mentioned as a candidate, and for good reason. Standing up to the People is beyond ballzy.

Helmut Kohl - Yeah, really. How quickly we forget. He accumulated and then spent incredible political capital to see through the peaceful reunification of a nation. Who'd have thought a commie police state could be turned into a beacon of democracy and capitalism in a mere decade? Who'd have thought West Germans could be convinced to effectively donate a quarter of their income for a decade or more to fund the reconstruction of the rusty East

Gerry Adams, Martin McGuinness, Ian Paisley, Hugh Smyth, Tony Blair, and Bertie Ahern - One of the world's best examples of conflict resolution, de-escalation, de-militarization, empowerment, and legitimization. They dealt with an incredibly sticky wicket with patience and trust from the grassroots up. In a scary world, they proved that, at least in some cases, there IS a way out of terrorism ... err ... I mean 'troubles.'

Gates Foundation - I'll never understand why anyone considers it novel or controversial that development creates stability creates wealth creates peace. There are too many examples to list, yet the Gates foundations is one of the few major benefactors attempting to take whole economies from zero to a stable platform for development in order to facilitate true wealth (and thus peace) creation.

Safaricom, the M-PESA, and the Safaricom Foundation - Along the lines of the above, these guys are establishing the factors of development in order to let poverty-stricken people bootstrap themselves.

The 150 (and counting) Russian Journalists murdered for speaking truth to power

OFAC - Struggling, albeit bureaucratically, but fairly successfully to cut off the lifeblood of conflict.

Rodrigo Lara Bonilla - Colombian Minister of Justice who sacrificed his life in the fight against the collapse of his country into a cartel-owned narco-state.

Virgilio Barco Vargas, César Gaviria - Colombian politicians at a time when that was a decidedly ill-advised career choice.

I Don't Care if it's Legal or Not...

For shame, poisonous people.

Barney Frank has this one right.

The Good the Bad and the Ugly

This one's short, sweet, and perhaps a little rough around the edges ...

The Good:
Geithner finally says something logical ... executive pay standards can be set by regulators but must be enforced by shareholders and boards.

He even said something smart: the US financial industry regulatory patchwork must be overhauled. The Fed should be put in the lead.

More generally, and as I will cover in detail in an upcoming blog, a sea change is coming in corporate accountability, focused, as I've always said it should, on the board.

Politicians are suddenly less paranoid about discussing healthcare.

The worst recession in 70 years turns out not to be the end of the world for most folks.

The Bad:
Promptly after saying something smart, Geithner proceeded to say something stupid. The holy grail of financial industry regulation most certainly is NOT a "council" of regulators. WTF good is this politicized talk-shop? Put someone in charge for chrissake. Make them independent for the love of God. I'm all for competition, even within government services, but it depends on what they're competing for. What are their incentives? How are they measured? The current incentive framework for these schmucks is: bloat their budget, cozy to the institutions they regulate, and kiss as much ass on the banking and FS committees in Congress as possible. Does he really think that the FDIC and OTS would have been any less of a joke as regulators if they had simply had more touchy-feely time with their fellow bureaucrats? How about getting out into the field and figuring out what's going on in the industry ... and then actually DOING something about the ugliness under the covers.

Worldwide equity and bond markets are turning around. We'll give back at least a third of what we've gained since January.

The Ugly:
This week we saw news of an "inquest" in Canada to figure out why a woman languished, entirely ignored, screaming and pushing the emergency button in a hospital for 4 hours before her husband had to single-handedly midwife her through birth. Duh.

In response, Obama decided that we should adopt the Canadian system. No lawsuits allowed, just like Canada. No guarantee of service levels, just like Canada. No responsible party, just like Canada. Obama's healathcare proposal is dreamware. Instead of injecting some reality, his crew and Congress have launched threats against anyone daring to speak reality (Elmendorf hang in there).

He was so busy thinking up this nugget that he forgot to check on those silly Iranian elections. Or maybe he saw the violations of basic human rights, international law, and his own past blathers ... and just didn't think they were important enough to disturb the lovely peace he's cultivating with his new Muslim BFFs. Maybe he's just being cooooool. Like he has been about the Dear Leader.

MLB players get to buy performance. NFL players get to buy their ay out of murder.

The Post Script:
There's a common thread to many of the "new" solutions that are being trotted out: the idea that more talk is the solution to every problem. I'm a massive fan of communication and information, but neither is an end in itself. These are means. These are methods. A car may need gas to get you from A to B ... but a can of gas is pretty damn pointless without a car ... or a road ... or the ability to drive ... or any of the other co-requisites.

Let's not take our eye off the ball.

Follow Up #2: Yeah, what HE Said!

Well, ya lose some, ya win some:

North Korea has fallen off the wagon again. The dumb shits are starting to re-build the same Yongbyon reactor they blew up with much fanfare three months ago. See for yourself here and here.

OTOH...

the Elton John of Islam, Mummar Gaddafi, the man whose first act as leader of Libya was to rename all the months ... the man who NNDB calls "A dictator known as much for sponsoring international terrorism as his impeccable fashion sense" ... the man who Reagan called "Mad Dog" ... the man who calls himself the "brother leader" in his own personal blog ... the man who really DOES have FemmeBots ... the man who flys with his camel ... has now decided to hold hands with the Great Satan and extoll the virtues of freedom, markets, and democracy:

[Libya] must reformulate itself in a new, free, and democratic way ... As long as money is administered by a government body, there would be theft and corruption ... You always accuse the popular committees of corruption and poor management ... These complaints will never end ... So everyone have their share [of oil revenues] in their pockets and manage.

Read all about it here.

Photo Credits: Reuters

Follow Up: Yeah, What HE Said!

Fear mongering, China style:

“I have lived for three-fourths of the last century, and I can tell you with certainty: should China embrace the parliamentary democracy of the Western world, the only result would be that 1.3 billion Chinese people would not have enough food to eat.”
– Jiang Zemin, President of the People’s Republic of China (1993 to 2003)

I guess Greenspan and Jiang will just have to agree to disagree.

残奥会倒计时一周年晚会 刘德华演唱 ... Inharmonious, Even in Chinese

My second-ever blog post talked about what I thought was wrong and right with China. Eighteen months later I visited the country for the first time and posted a follow-up blog based on what I saw.

Now, more than 3 and a half years later, they've made incredible and undeniable progress, as we all knew they would ... It's the old "damn the torpedoes, full steam ahead!" Unfortunately, those torpedoes are bigger, more numerous, and closer than ever before. Every day, with every move, a few more torpedoes crash into the Chinese hull. From time to time, they wander into storms and scrape reefs, but for now their charge is relentless, most visibly over the upcoming weeks as we all watch their Olympics. We will ooh! and aah! and some will whisper "they've beat us!"

But hold! Each impact, scrape, and squall takes its toll. We need look no further than Newtonian Law (applied to Economics) to know that SS China's rate of progress necessarily and permanently slows every time it runs across resistance. Each battle scar makes the craft slightly less hydro-dynamic. At some point, the Chinese people will tire of the turbulence and demand a smoother ride. Eventually, they'll realize that they need to modernize and reinforce their craft to make it long-lasting. All of these will inevitably slow their progress.

At the end of this blog, you'll find a table of the main torpedoes currently in the water and pinging. I list what's wrong and what's right with their response to each over the last few years.

As I've said before, it will take China a hundred years to fully recover from their current barrage-laden charge, to repair and upgrade their craft, and to find the safe, stable, deep and open waters where "We" (the US, Japan, and Europe) spend most of our time. We've been through the gauntlet already. We've forged much new territory and it has never been a smooth ride. Today, our people want a cautious hand at the wheel in order to foresee and prevent disturbances. We want a sure financial return on our investment. Plus, we want low costs (financial, political, ecological, and human). All of which explain why we no longer have China's appetite for showing off.

Chinese may think they can "control" their way to a permanently elevated cruise speed. Millions of ex-Communist technocrats have found that they can apply old Marx and Engels to a concept very de rigeur in Western business: performance metrics and control. This has been employed to tremendous fanfare in preparation for the Olympics ... and also to impressive effect. Today, those directing the Chinese economic ship are not in it for the money, but for the power and the growth.

At some point the populace will demand a bigger and more assured share of the spoils. Maybe even a say in how things are done. Someday, China's government will have to start listening to their people and considering the human side of their choices ... So far, they've shown their tone-deafness in this area. No wonder: these are "softer" criteria. It's tough to measure, control, and set targets for national unity or happiness. ISO has no international standard for maximization of human potential ... yet these are all critical once the voice of the people must be considered.

What are these soft criteria? I'm giving a stratospheric view of very human-level concepts. Let's swoop down and get a little more concrete with a few very human tales:

• Wu Ping and the Nail House: The story of a government-anointed real estate developer's battle against a peasant family for their hovel and land, complete with scandal and standoff. It ends with a wrecking ball for the hovel and a phantom payment for the peasants. Phantom because they mysteriously disappear before the money can be paid.


• The Journalists, the Censors, and the Spies: Before they even arrived, foreign journalists had something to gripe about. It came to light that China (with the complicity of the IOC) would be censoring their Internet connections, in contradiction to earlier promises. More insidious, perhaps, is the US Government's warning that visitors should avoid taking their cell phones and laptops to the games to avoid the risk that their devices might get infected with government-sponsored invisible spyware.
  
• China's Special Woebegone Games: (finally, an explanation of the blog's title!) The stereotype is that disabled people in China are hidden to avoid shame. There is no ADA in China. Worldwide, Paralympic athletes will take every opportunity to tell you they want no special treatment. Their event is about self-sufficient, highly trained athletes in ruthless head-to-head competition. It is NOT about creating a fantasy land of love and self-esteem where everyone is a winner. That's the Special Olympics. Which is why they're none too excited about the Chinese Paralympic Committee's official theme song "Everyone is Number One" ("残奥会倒计时一周年晚会 刘德华演唱"). Not to mention they've one-upped our cultural icon Garrison Keillor's Woebegone Effect ("Welcome to Lake Woebegone where ... all the children are above average.")

Torpedoes in the Water!!

If I were captain of SS China, these are the issues I'd be losing sleep over:

Re: Talk Amongst Yourselves ... Colombia is the new Israel

I just have to laugh about this one. I apparently have a very infamous reader.

On 3/27/2007, I posted a blog saying "Talk Amongst Yourselves ... Colombia is the new Israel"

On 3/2/2008, the unoriginal pig Hugo Chavez stole my line in a press conference, saying "The Colombian government has become the Israel of Latin America."

What should I make of this? Imitation the highest form of flattery? Great minds think alike?

PS: he's not a pig for being unoriginal. It's his populism that gets my goat.

Photo Credit: AP

Iranians vs. Iran ... Rick Steves and the Shahab-3

As I've said before, I really appreciate Rick Steves' European shows on PBS. When I found out he also maintained a blog (who doesn't these days?) I was instantly hooked! He gives hidden insights and sneak previews, but also shows the entertaining soft underbelly of his job (grumpy tourist office in England, stupid rules in Turkey). When he mentioned he would be going to Iran to separate the real from the rhetoric ... well, honestly I was nervous. This has been used frequently by the peaceniks among us as a euphemism for their peace-at-all-costs world view.

All told, it was a courageous and a valuable thing he did. We'll all be better off if we can humanize this conflict a bit. I agree with him that individual-to-individual contact can lead us all to greater understanding of each other. I share his hope that understanding breeds compassion and even solidarity.

But Rick showed his liberal underpants a bit. While his aim was to present an "even view" of the country, his result was to give glibly cursory coverage to the hate-mongering propaganda spewed forth by the insaniac Iranian government. Does he really mean to suggest that "Death to America" is just a cute figure of speech? I give him kudos for covering every smile and "we love America" he observed from the Iranian citizens. However, by over-emphasizing these, he showed he could not resist the temptation to counter-balance the White House's predilection for fear mongering. with opposite-but-unfortunately-equal myopia.

Here's my take on the Iran:

• To quote Reagan, "People do not make wars; governments do." In this context, the meaning is that the conflict does not really involve the common citizens of either country. On both sides, they're more interested in living their lives comfortably and being left alone than geopolitics. He went on to say, "A people free to choose will always choose peace." I saw this firsthand in the early 1990's in the former USSR - the people never did hate Americans. Had no reason to, except the fear preached them by their government. And they were just as afraid of their own government as ours. Rick did a good job of demonstrating that (many) Iranians are no exception.
  
• To repeat Reagan: "People do not make wars; governments do." His statement has a second meaning: Governments do, indeed, make wars on behalf of their countries. Acknowledging my first point (and Rick's) does not repudiate the fact that the Ayatollah Insane-y and the rabid Ahmadi-nejad army could cause great harm to life and limb in the US, Iran, and most likely anyone else who has the misfortune of getting their attention. Sanctions, containment, diplomacy, saber rattling, and outright aggression may well be necessary in response to their actions.

The fact that an American can traipse around Iran (with government minders) gathering smiles and hugs from children and grandmas alike calls attention not to the power of peace or the senselessness of war ... but to the tragedy of it. I'm quite sure the average middle-class, non-fundamentalist Iranian (if there are any left in that place) is as anti-war as his American counterpart.

However, that (mythical ?) average Iranian does not have his finger on the "launch" button of the new Shahab-3 nuclear-capable intermediate range missile. Nor does he have the key to the national purse. He has no vote on whether his own dire, hopless, poverty-stricken existence is worth the billions being wasted by the government on their nuclear program.

It is FOR, not AGAINST these people that aggression against their government may be necessary.

I'll let Reagan wrap up my argument: "We can not play innocents abroad in a world that is not innocent." We must engage Iran with respect, but from a position of strength. We don't need to be the world's daddy, but we do need to ensure our own safety.

If we can serve as a global role model of freedom and respectability, we achieve dual success of furthering our own self-interests while at the same time elevating the world's lowliest and most suppressed. To that end, we should be willing to expend our own treasure and flex our own muscle. It's a long-term proposition, which makes it politically dificult. Greatness is not for the short-sighted.

Photo credits:
Rick Steves in Iran: Rick Steves Blog (http://www.ricksteves.com/blog/index.cfm?fuseaction=archives&month=6&year=2008)
Iranian Missiles: Sepah News (http://www.daylife.com/words/Sepah_News) via AFP

Lesser of Two Evils

Morgan Tsvangirai is no stranger to jails, nor threats. Perhaps he had finally got in over his head. Perhaps he couldn't take anymore. Without question, he did not choose his calling. Did not want it. No one would. He was chosen by fate. He was carried on a tide of a million unanticipated events into a position as the only viable alternative to Zimbabwe's current monster. To carry that torch for this long, only to extinguish it at the last moment nearly smacks of conspiracy. What better way for Mugabe to ensure victory than to stage a tight, energetic race only to have his only opponent step down at the last moment, too late for anyone else to step in and challenge his tyranical rule?

Mugabe should rot slowly and painfully in hell for what he has done to the country and people of Zimbabwe.

I recognize that most of the Starbucks-sipping world has been numbed to the human tragedy of violence by Hollywood and distracted from true crises by CNN (they should be ashamed of devoting even a second of airtime to the ridiculous "pregnancy pact"!) I know most prefer enemy-less wars and pain-less struggles. Africa is not for those people. Zimbabwe is a truly inconvenient truth. They should not look at what happens when the verneer of civilization is chipped away and raw, desperate, animalistic instinct takes over.

http://www.anglican-information-archive.org/post%20election%20zim.pdf



To become a hero in Africa requires that people fight on that level. I don't mean civil war. I don't mean humanitarian atrocities. Nor childish Israel/Gaza-style tit-for-tat. I mean that the fight is going to be ugly. I mean that temporary pain must be endured to find long-term salvation. I mean that when opportunities come, they must be taken. I, unfortunately, mean that the means must be justified by their ends alone. People must be inspired. Courage must be found.

It appears Morgan Tsvangirai is no Benazir Bhutto.


Video credit: Times Online / timesonline.co.uk

Follow Up: Yo Burma ... I mean China ... Err Russia ...

An artcle in the NY Times yesterday called attention to yet more evidence of Putin's paranoia/control psychosis. In fact, they have a whole series dedicated to it. Robert Amsterdam's blog is another good source. At the risk of having his occipital-lobe-less goons poison me in London ... I think it's safe to say Sun Tzu would call him STUPID.



Dr. Evil and Mini-me would be proud of the cast of clinically (crimnally?) insane characters who have weaseled their way into positions of worldly power in a sad attempt to assuage their freakishly large inferiority complexes. I'd list 'em out for you, but I have a better idea... and, no, I'm not being paid for this celebrity endorsement.


If Survivor is not sensational enough for you, I highly recommend tuning into the reality competition blog Evil Leaders League which pits these nuts against each other weekly in head-to-head cage fight style tests of evilness. The genius of the blog is in the judges' color commentary (I like "An opposition boycott to an election is the evil leader's version of an orgasm" and "Tehran-i-saurus Rex"). Weekly winners get points, which are tallied throughout the season. Competition gets hot-and-heavy in the playoffs and then there is the scintillating final cage fight death match.

We're currently in the off-season, which is the perfect time to catch up ADHD-style on seasons 1 through 3. They have a Highlights page ... but their most priceless work is in their photo galleries (check out "sexy Putin").