Showing posts with label The Environment. Show all posts
Showing posts with label The Environment. Show all posts

Tuesday, January 20, 2009

Talk Amongst Yourselves: The Great Canadian Oil Spill (Sprawl?)

I recently took a trip to the Canadian Rockies to enjoy the pure, spectacular pleasure of Mother Nature's creations as she meant them. Ski the glaciers. Spot moose. Or whatever people do up there.

Then I landed in Calgary. Oil may have paid for the incredible boom ... but it's not oil oozing over all the hills surrounding this former cow town.

It's houses. Scores of thousands of them. I've seen urban sprawl like this in the wastelands surrounding LA, Phoenix, and more recently Dirty Vegas, but it's absolutely shocking to see in sleepy western Canada.
And if you believe, as I do, that sprawl needs to be managed, it's downright sickening. Undeveloped land is becoming as rare a commodity as the black ooze underground. The externalities of greenfield development have never been properly priced. I've spent my entire adult life trying to balance my libertarian tendencies with my desire to see preservation of large swathes of unadulterated nature. Can development be controlled using natural mechanisms without infringing on the basic capitalist tenet ensuring the capitalist's prerogative with his assets?
So far, so bad. So I turn it over to you. What's the answer?

Tuesday, August 12, 2008

Follow Up: Talk Amongst Yourselves: Unlucky Numbers

The Earth, she is a changin'

Not sayin' ya otta think about your vacation plans ... but Alaska Airlines has cancelled dozens of flights this week due to volcanic ash from the Kasatochi Volcano in the western Aleutian islands between Alaska and Russia. The poor airline is particularly prone to seismic/geologic disruption since it's routemap pretty much mirrors the North American faultline map all the way from Fairbanks to Cabo.

Not sure whether Mama Earth is warmin' up or coolin' down, but the West Coast is not the only area with indigestion recently. Geologic activity is on the rise throughout vast parts of the world, predominantly in the Pacific:


8/12 - 5.9 mag quake in South Pacific
8/11 - 6.0 mag quake off West African coast
8/10 - 6.2 mag quake in Indian Ocean
8/9 - 6.5 mag quake off Antarctic coast
8/9 - Tungurahua Volcano exhaltations in Ecuador
8/8 - 5.8 mag quake in Indian Ocean
8/7 - Kasatochi and Okmok Volcanoes erupt in Alaska
8/7 - 5.8 mag quake off Alaska coast
8/7 - 5.4 mag quake in Baja California MX
8/5 - 6.0 mag quake in Sichuan, CN
8/4 - 6.3 mag quake in South Pacific
8/4 - Mt. Saint Helens WA, Fuego Guatemala, Popocatepetl Mexico, Rabaul Paupaua New Guinea, Chikurachki and Karymsky, Russia volcanoes increased exhaltations during the week
8/2 - 5.5 mag quake in Fiji
8/1 Chaiten Volcano erupts in Chile
8/1 - 5.7 mag quake in Sichuan, CN
8/1 - 5.6 mag quake in Phillipines
7/29 - 5.4 mag quake in Los Angeles CA
7/29 - 5.8 mag quake in Souh Pacific
7/28 - 6.0 mag quake in Souh Pacific
7/27 - 5.9 mag quake in Mid-Atlantic
7/25 - 6.2 mag quake off Alaska coast
7/24 - 5.7 mag quake in Sichuan, CN
7/23 - 6.8 mag quake off Honshu JP coast
7/23 Mt. Cleveland Volcano erupts off the coast of Alaska
7/23 - 5.5 mag quake in Sichuan, CN
7/22 - 5.6 mag quake in Sichuan, CN
7/21 - 6.0 mag quake off Honshu JP coast
7/20 - 5.8 mag quake off Bonin JP coast
7/19 - 6.6 mag quake in South Pacific
7/19 - 7.0 mag quake off Honshu, JP coast
7/17 - 5.7 mag quake off Oregon coast
7/16 - 5.7 mag quake off New Zealand coast
7/14 - 5.7 mag quake in Indonesia
7/5 - 7.7 mag quake off Alaska coast
...
6/14 - 7.2 mag quake in Japan
6/13 - Stromboli Volcano in Italy (who knew?) erupts
6/12 - Sakurajima Volcano emits ash 7,000 feet in the air
...
5/12 - 8.0 mag quake in Sichuan, CN
...
3/21 - 7.2 mag quake in Sichuan, CN

Check it out live at:

Interactive volcano/earthquake map: http://baird.si.edu/minsci/tdpmap/viewer.htm


Wednesday, August 06, 2008

残奥会倒计时一周年晚会 刘德华演唱 ... Inharmonious, Even in Chinese

My second-ever blog post talked about what I thought was wrong and right with China. Eighteen months later I visited the country for the first time and posted a follow-up blog based on what I saw.

Now, more than 3 and a half years later, they've made incredible and undeniable progress, as we all knew they would ... It's the old "damn the torpedoes, full steam ahead!" Unfortunately, those torpedoes are bigger, more numerous, and closer than ever before. Every day, with every move, a few more torpedoes crash into the Chinese hull. From time to time, they wander into storms and scrape reefs, but for now their charge is relentless, most visibly over the upcoming weeks as we all watch their Olympics. We will ooh! and aah! and some will whisper "they've beat us!"

But hold! Each impact, scrape, and squall takes its toll. We need look no further than Newtonian Law (applied to Economics) to know that SS China's rate of progress necessarily and permanently slows every time it runs across resistance. Each battle scar makes the craft slightly less hydro-dynamic. At some point, the Chinese people will tire of the turbulence and demand a smoother ride. Eventually, they'll realize that they need to modernize and reinforce their craft to make it long-lasting. All of these will inevitably slow their progress.

At the end of this blog, you'll find a table of the main torpedoes currently in the water and pinging. I list what's wrong and what's right with their response to each over the last few years.

As I've said before, it will take China a hundred years to fully recover from their current barrage-laden charge, to repair and upgrade their craft, and to find the safe, stable, deep and open waters where "We" (the US, Japan, and Europe) spend most of our time. We've been through the gauntlet already. We've forged much new territory and it has never been a smooth ride. Today, our people want a cautious hand at the wheel in order to foresee and prevent disturbances. We want a sure financial return on our investment. Plus, we want low costs (financial, political, ecological, and human). All of which explain why we no longer have China's appetite for showing off.

Chinese may think they can "control" their way to a permanently elevated cruise speed. Millions of ex-Communist technocrats have found that they can apply old Marx and Engels to a concept very de rigeur in Western business: performance metrics and control. This has been employed to tremendous fanfare in preparation for the Olympics ... and also to impressive effect. Today, those directing the Chinese economic ship are not in it for the money, but for the power and the growth.

At some point the populace will demand a bigger and more assured share of the spoils. Maybe even a say in how things are done. Someday, China's government will have to start listening to their people and considering the human side of their choices ... So far, they've shown their tone-deafness in this area. No wonder: these are "softer" criteria. It's tough to measure, control, and set targets for national unity or happiness. ISO has no international standard for maximization of human potential ... yet these are all critical once the voice of the people must be considered.

What are these soft criteria? I'm giving a stratospheric view of very human-level concepts. Let's swoop down and get a little more concrete with a few very human tales:

  • Wu Ping and the Nail House: The story of a government-anointed real estate developer's battle against a peasant family for their hovel and land, complete with scandal and standoff. It ends with a wrecking ball for the hovel and a phantom payment for the peasants. Phantom because they mysteriously disappear before the money can be paid.

  • The Journalists, the Censors, and the Spies: Before they even arrived, foreign journalists had something to gripe about. It came to light that China (with the complicity of the IOC) would be censoring their Internet connections, in contradiction to earlier promises. More insidious, perhaps, is the US Government's warning that visitors should avoid taking their cell phones and laptops to the games to avoid the risk that their devices might get infected with government-sponsored invisible spyware.
  • China's Special Woebegone Games: (finally, an explanation of the blog's title!) The stereotype is that disabled people in China are hidden to avoid shame. There is no ADA in China. Worldwide, Paralympic athletes will take every opportunity to tell you they want no special treatment. Their event is about self-sufficient, highly trained athletes in ruthless head-to-head competition. It is NOT about creating a fantasy land of love and self-esteem where everyone is a winner. That's the Special Olympics. Which is why they're none too excited about the Chinese Paralympic Committee's official theme song "Everyone is Number One" ("残奥会倒计时一周年晚会 刘德华演唱"). Not to mention they've one-upped our cultural icon Garrison Keillor's Woebegone Effect ("Welcome to Lake Woebegone where ... all the children are above average.")

Torpedoes in the Water!!

If I were captain of SS China, these are the issues I'd be losing sleep over:

Tuesday, August 05, 2008

Talk Amongst Yourselves: Unlucky Numbers

I guess Mother Earth isn't so happy with this summer's lack of global warming ... earthquake in China, then one in California, now another one in China ... oh, and I flew over mount St. Helens yesterday ... the smoke/steam cloud coming out of her must have been 100 miles long.

A while back, I read anecdotal evidence that geological shifts often have impacts on diametrically opposing sides of the globe (ahem ... China/Cali). Now that China has taken it's turn ... is Cali in for another shake-up?

Saturday, July 26, 2008

Follow Up #4: Power

Recently I saw the following chart (left) in the Economist's special report on The Future of Energy. Last year I did some research and drew up these charts in support of my Power blog (right 2 charts). Thanks, Economist for painting this interesting historical picture to queue up my forecasts.

In their chart, what strikes me as most interesting is the speed with which we have been able to switch from one source of energy to another. The shift from wood to coal was halfway complete within 3 decades. We shifted from 3/4 of energy from coal to 1/4 in a single generation (thanks to the increase in oil demand from the exploding popularity of cars).

There's plenty of hard evidence that the rate of technological progress continues to accelerate unabated and with no end in sight. To me, this lends credibility to the argument I've been trying to make of late: the current media hand-wringing is largely misdirected angst. I'm quite confident will be able to shift our energy sources even in the face of unstoppable and dramatic increases in demand ... all before Armageddon is upon us. No, $5 gas is not Armageddon. Jeez.

The Economist seems equally confident that we'll make the necessary changes in the appropriate (yes, "measured and responsible" is an appropriate pace for things) way and time frame. To paraphrase: Don't look now but it's already happening. One of the main sources for their special report, Geoffrey Carr, said it best in a blog at guardian.co.uk: "Alternative energy technologies are proliferating rapidly. And it is big bad business that is making it happen."

Chalk up another one for capitalism to save the day. The Watermelons (aka Green Party) and their type have been thrashing for half a century to absolutely zero effect, save giving environmentalism a bad name.

Source of first chart: BP via Economist.com

Tuesday, September 25, 2007

Power

The future of energy is resolving itself to a new level of clarity. We certainly need to work on the "zoom" to see exactly the mechanisms that will get us to the future, but the horizon is now visible.

To state the obvious, the energy of the future is electricity. Other mechanisms will also coexist (see below), but not predominantly. Everything from power plants to factories to cars to home heat will become electric. Because of this demand will skyrocket from the current 500 exajoules of primary energy per year to perhaps 2000 EJ by this time next century. So-called "energy intensity" (energy production/economic output) will continue to decline in industrialized countries, but overall demand will continue to increase. In the 3rd world, unfortunately, both will rocket skyward for a half century. Conservation will slow the growth perhaps but even the most asceticly stringent views could not suggest that we will reduce overall demand as billion after billion people move from subsistence to industry.

For the next 20 to 40 years, new energy generation will be nuclear. It's there, it's safe, it's cheap. This will give breathing room for R&D to successfully develop methods of harvesting energy from a very broad range of geological sources (see below). Somewhere around 2050, we'll wake up to find that geo sources account for more than 50% of total generation. At that point, the only talk about carbon- or nuclear-sourced generation will be how fast these dinosaurs can be killed with economic efficiency.

The bigger story is energy sourced from the earth and the sky. In a sense, this is the next evolution in conservation, since currently the universe wastes (well, expends anyway) inconceivable amounts of energy. Our long-term focus will be on harnessing these joules. Or would that be jewels? To quote Wikipedia (whence all good info eventually alights) the amount of solar energy intercepted by Earth every minute is greater than the energy produced by fossil fuels each year. The earth's core alone generates an incredible 140,000,000 EJ a year. It is estimated that this could easily translate into potential of 5,000 harnessed EJ of geothermal energy per year using currently-existing technologies.

Let me put this overall theory into pictures. As these are simply theories, the numbers are indicative.




Power Sources (first tab) ... and estimates (second tab):



Further reading:
http://www.fao.org/DOCREP/006/AD550E/ad550e00.pdf
http://secondlawoflife.wordpress.com/category/power-generation/
http://ies.lbl.gov/iespubs/42949.pdf
http://web.mit.edu/space_solar_power/

and, as always: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable_energy