All I want for Christmas is ...

Shamelessly borrowed from Monica Trasandes ... but I couldn't have said it better myself.

The ability to unitask | by Monica Trasandes

"Recently I found myself walking toward the kitchen with a load of laundry in my arms, two empty coffee cups dangling from my fingers, and car keys tucked between my chin and the clothes.
Oh, and I stopped to clean up a spill, using a fallen sock, which I then kicked into the kitchen. Forty minutes later, as I pulled my fresh-smelling, shiny keys from the wash, I realized I had reached unhealthy levels of multitasking.
This problem has dogged me for years. For example, I never just make pasta for dinner: I put on the spaghetti sauce while cleaning the bathroom, opening and shredding mail and watering the plants. This means I end up with a very clean apartment that smells like scorched tomatoes. I never seem to just drive, either: I simultaneously peel and eat a banana and listen to the news while returning calls for my media-director job (on my hands-free phone, of course).
A man I admire has called multitasking "the enemy of intimacy"—and for me that's certainly true. Often I do dishes or clear my desk while chatting on the phone with friends. I can't seem to help myself.
The problem: I've always felt guilty about doing one thing at a time. On those occasions when I have, say, carried laundry and dirty dishes on separate trips, my evil inner critic has sneered at me: "Hmm, taking it slow today, aren't we, unitasker? I guess some of us don't want to succeed." To which I should reply: "I want to succeed, evil inner critic! I just don't want to have to achieve all my goals at the same time." But I rarely succeed. Usually I give in, reluctantly, to that bullying voice.
So, for Christmas this year, I want to make a change. At long last, I would like to embrace a slower way of life: I'll read and only read. Drive and only drive. I'll be fully present when talking to my friends. Because with all the multitasking, I know that I'm missing so much."

Yeah! What HE Said: Smart is as Smart Says ... Hopefully History Repeats

Allow me to quote myself quoting someone who has every right to give Uncle Sam a big ole "told ya so" right now.

"Experience hath shewn, that even under the best forms of government those entrusted with power have, in time, and by slow operations, perverted it into tyranny." - Thomas Jefferson

"And to preserve their independence, we must not let our rulers load us with perpetual debt. We must make our election between economy and liberty, or profusion and servitude." - Thomas Jefferson

"That government is best which governs least." - Thomas Jefferson

The Zeitgeist of the BearDogs

Sometimes Simple IS the best way to communicate. Here's to the simpletons.

Tawdry Tiger

Everybody loves a hero. I get that. Heroes do the impossible when we need it most. Heroes reaffirm our belief in humanity. Heroes set the example. Heroes motivate. Heroes save the asses of the meek.

Apparently, the only thing we love more than a hero is a fallen one. They reaffirm our fallibility. They set a nice low bar for everyone to stoop to. They make the meek feel not-so-bad. They're a backhanded self-esteem boost ... I assume. I don't get it.

To me, raking the country through Tiger's muck is disgustingly counter-productive. If someone craves tawdry drama, they should pick up a Jane Austen novel.

Strike that - they should feel dirty and trashy and embarrassed. C'mon people - we have better things to spend our brainwaves on than TM-goddamn-Z.

Dhammacakkappavattana Sutta

The Tathagata (aka Perfect One) realizes the middle way, eschewing both extremes.

This "crystallizes the Buddha's Nirvana-bound [Noble Eightfold] Path of moderation away from the extremes of sensual indulgence and self-mortification and toward the practice of wisdom, morality and mental cultivation." (Thanks Wikipedia).

Guess The Perfect One doesn't live 'round here. Or at least I can't find him on the TeeVee anywhere.

I wonder where he might be. Where the heck's that path, anyway? Is that off A1A somewhere? Nah. More likely PCH. Here's what Google Karma Maps says:

Follow Signs to "Wisdom":
1. Right view

Law of Karma

Three Characteristics (nothing is permanent; we are not permanent; we are
not much of anything at all)

Suffering (specifically, how to get rid of it)

2. Right intention

The exertion of our own will to change

Take a Right at "Ethical Conduct":

3. Right speech

Abstain from lying, from divisive speech, from abusive speech, and from idle chatter

4. Right action

Don't act in ways that would be corrupt or bring harm to oneself or to others

5. Right livelihood

Don't engage in trades or occupations which, either directly or indirectly, result in harm for other living beings ... (I choose to practice the Middle Way on this one ... some yellowtail and a good rib eye every now and then give me moderation and balance and harmony or whatever ... veggies are people, too, you know)

Keep Straight onto "Concentration":
6. Right effort

Always foster what would be good and useful to ones self and others in one's thoughts, words, and deeds, without a thought for the difficulty or weariness involved

7. Right mindfulness

Constantly be alert to phenomena that affect the body and mind. Be mindful and deliberate, making sure not to act or speak due to inattention or forgetfulness

8. Right concentration

Reach full concentration and meditative absorption. Cut off all defilements and reach self-awakening. During the practice of right concentration, one must investigate and verify their right view. In the process, right knowledge will arise, followed by right liberation.

What's that got to do with this blog?

Pretty much everything.

The "New" Creative Destruction

You cannot help the poor by destroying the rich.
You cannot strengthen the weak by weakening the strong.
You cannot bring about prosperity by discouraging thrift.
You cannot lift the wage earner up by pulling the wage payer down.
You cannot further the brotherhood of man by inciting class hatred.
You cannot build character and courage by taking away people's initiative and independence.
And you cannot help people permanently by doing for them, what they could and should do for themselves.

- Ronald Reagan, 1992 Republican Convention, quoting William Boetcker

Having Vision but Flying Blind

They're misunderstood, if not neglected entirely. They're maligned. They're abused. They each need to be adopted ... by all of us.

I won't be so bold as to say whether Obama or I first sweetened to this set of keys. Clearly, however, we've all been burned by their absence. At least the new administration is trying them out. And I don't mean vision, itself.

You see, having vision is a great thing. Quite rare is the fortitude to choose the right path in spite of the fear mongers, detractors, and wailing interest groups. More rare, however ... in fact, nearly extinct these days ... is successful execution. My recent blog bemoaned and pondered the failings of the US over the past few years. To me, these were seldom from lack of vision, skill, or will. The ideas were sound. The people were smart. But despite having vision coming out of all orifices, they were flying completely blind. Calamity came from complete failures of execution.

Utter failures of execution. On many levels.

It is thus nice to begin to see ghosted hints and hear soft whispering breezes indicating that some people in corporate and political America "get it." It's early days, and this blog will have many follow-ups, but let me describe what's on my radar so far:

A focus on communication.

• Conveying the right message. One side effect of our current info overload is that people have become amazingly good at hearing. People hear more than just the words spoken and can quickly identify the message being conveyed. Too often, Bush administration representatives were speaking about one thing (terrorists in Guantanimo, for example) but projecting a message about something entirely else (caginess from a deep mistrust of the current justice system or the public stomach). It is critical that speakers determine, memorize, and deeply understand the message they're trying to convey. This doesn't mean memorizing a speech and presenting it deer-in-headlights style. It means knowing the message well enough to convey it while sounding like a real person. This builds trust. So does consistency. For an administration, the SAME message needs to be broadcast via multiple channels. It needs to be immutable in its repetition. And the message needs to be right. It needs to be strategic. In the corporate world, for example, the message should convey a specific brand identity and aspiration.
  
• Closely related is Selling the value proposition. Yes, this is Corporate Newspeak. Said in plain English, this means that communicators need to really understand the relative benefits of what they're advocating. This needs to be incorporated into their message every time they communicate. To say it even more simply: sell, sell, sell.
  
• Communication isn't a one-way street. Listening actively to feedback is not optional. It is a diferentiator between failure and success. Actively means listening to and understanding everything they say, literally and in terms of message. It means checking your understanding "So your main goal is X because Y?" It means accepting things that don't sync with your view or message. Once understood and accepted, communicators must be willing to do the unthinkable: incorporate their message into their own, either by responding or by absorbing.
  
• Taking another step back, though, communicators need to make damn sure they've got the right vision as well as message. They can blunder through it; they can be lucky enough to be in the right place at the right time; OR they can do it the right way by investing in information. They must collect, standardize, and analyze data. They must ensure their people AND their audience are properly educated on the issues. They must be brave enough to risk some time and money in skunkworks which may yield nothing, may yield something that doesn't fit with their current vision.

A focus on accountability.

• You cannot have accountability unless you know what your goals are
  
• Then you must identify what the measurements of success should be
  
• Then you must measure what the current state is. Now. With all it's warts.
  
• Finally you need to build the right incentive programs. You need to test your carrots and sticks for perverse incentives.

Surmounting Surmounted Stature

At this very moment, at least a billion people (myself included) must be wondering what the hell happened to the US over the past fear years. Our global preeminence economically, politically, and militarily seems less impressive and less assured today. Of those billion people, sadly, many simply blame one man. The US President is powerful, but he's not all that and a bag of chips. Other people, even more sadly, blame the overall US way of life: our culture, our youth and exuberance, our taste for risk, our ADD, our wealth, our celebsessions, our fast food.

To me, it's adolescent logic to argue that our strengths are our greatest weakness.

The perception that the US has fallen is exaggerated by half, but clearly execution failures, spectacular to mundane, are all too pervasive. Have we just gone pear-shaped? Tits over tea kettle? Lost our mmmmmojo?

One theory is that the rate of failure is unchanged, but in this age of information, they are spectacularized whereas century ago they would have been squelched.

Another theory is that the US has run out of easy wins. Once, oil literally oozed out of the ground in downtown LA. Now, we install rigs in the harshest of locations and must poke miles down into the earth ... or just deal with the Devil. When electricity was first harnessed, options for exploitation were limitless. Gains were huge. Now we must conserve. Innovation used to happen in leaps and bounds as we thought up brand new things. Now it's a slow climb up a steep mountain, figuring out how to do the same old things incrementally cheaper, faster, better.

Or perhaps a social evolution theory applies: Humanity was once, by necessity, survivalistic, decisive, ends-justify-means, hunter-killer, red meat, Western, wanderlust, and masculine. With innovation and social organization, that necessity has abated, being replaced by new imperatives: collaborative, change-averse, risk-averse, non-confrontational, agrarian, vegan, Asian and emasculated. We've evolved (socially) to a point where we believe that our best chance for survival lies not with our individual abilities, but is tied to our capability to integrate within, and enjoy the shared bounty of a larger society. In order to push the whole society to produce and achieve, each member must first endure the necessary overhead of "connecting" with the other members. To "connect" one must spend time communicating, documenting, justifying, persuading, organizing, planning, coordinating, motivating. I'll lump these societal requisites together under the term "connecting."

As the theory goes, people now focus so much on "connecting" that they run out of time to actually produce. This sea change in the way of getting things done (or not) causes a black hole which swallows great people, ideas, laws, and businesses before they can create anything of value.

If you don't like that theory, you could just say that we've just become rich, fat, and lazy. In his case, you must conclude that, just as the Romans, the Akkadians, the Hun, the Mali, the Egyptians, the Ottomans, the Spanish, and the English, so will the American empire fall.

Alternatively, you could decide that we've consolidated power in the hands of a few, and left hoi polloi impotent to look after their own best interests.

Or you could conclude that the human brain has found information overload, that life is just too fast, and that we've thus become irrational and random our their decisions.

It doesn't much matter which justification you prefer. What I would like to figure out is where we go from here!

Fashion in North America

Between work and play, I've spent an inordinate amount of time on the road lately.

In my business, you're in front of new people every day. The way you connect (or don't) in the very first few augenblicks pretty much locks in your relationship, and consequently how much trust and attention they allow you ... and consequently how successful you are in the long run. To say it bluntly, if they think you're "cool," they want more of you. Sadly, it's just as grade-shool playground as that.

Sitting in a sardine can hurdling through space this week, I got to thinking about what's cool or fashionable in the places I've been lately ... stewed down to a single word:

Montreal :fashionably preened
Toronto: fashionably concerned
SF: fashionably superior
Seattle: fashionably ambiguous
DC: fashionably frumpy
LA: fashionably connected
Vail: fashionably chill
NY: fashionably rushed

Just stereotypes of the images people project, of course. In reality, everyone just wants to get laid.

Let's Play Interact! Part 2: The Answer

If you're reading this blog and haven't read Part 1, STOP NOW and check it out first.

If you've already played: thank you! I promise the answer key is shorter than the questions. In fact, it's one word long. The word is nothing. In each case, the most likely response was for people to simply go on about their business, pretending as though nothing had happened. The Earth continued to revolve around the sun. No harm done. No time "wasted" from their busy schedules. No shame felt. But an ounce of civility was squandered. No connections made. No lives improved. No needs met.

Predictable: perhaps.
Pessimistic: probably.

What would you have done?
Honestly, now.

Sure, some people, some times will go out of their way. Here's my call to arms: we, who consider ourselves the cutting edge of civilization need to turn that "some" into "most." Individually.

Individually.
Yes, individually.

Let's not let the nanny politicians try to legislate ethics on us. Let's beat 'em to the punch and follow the Nike doctrine: Just Do It.

I don't mean to belittle any fragile me-generation egos out there, but unless you're carrying a heart in an ice chest, prevnting a plane from crashing, or sniping a suicide bomber, you DO have sixty seconds to stop what you're doing and care for your fellow human. Not all of them at once; don't emotionally bankrupt yourself tilting at windmills.

If everyone simply reached out to the person to the right and the person to the left of you, we'd have twice the helping hands we'd need. Call me a socialist euphorist idealist. My response to that was published a few days ago in my blog Shout Out to the Individual.

What Will Tomorrow Bring: Tuning Out

Let's face it: evidence is piling up that the flight of Planet Earth is oversold. Open spaces, at least in most of the US, Europe, Asia, and even Africa are getting smaller, rarer, and more pressured. They're already having to kill elephants in Africa and we all know what's going on with the mountain gorillas. They'll soon be literally pushed off the face of the Earth.

We're far better at adapting, but the population squeeze increasingly impacts us as well. Enough people talk plenty about the health impacts (ahem, India). What about the psychological? Oh, and then there's the info-overload we all fight on a daily basis.

In the not too far-off future, we will find that our inability to "get away" will necessitate a new escape: "tuning out." I'm not talking hippie-style sitting in the woods. I'm not talking about leaving your Crackberry on silent during dinner. I'm talking about total in-place mental disengagement. Our mental circuit-breakers will demand that we simply stop our brains or they'll do it for us.

Some day you'll ask your co-worker "What are you doing on your day off, Jane?" and she'll tell you "I'm just tuning out." And she'll mean it.

On one hand, this opens the potential for an amazing expansion of the meditative industry.

On the other hand, this will cause a loss of potential production, collaboration, and learning.

Until we can re-master the skill of FOCUS and just move a teensy bit slower, we will find ourselves resorting to "tuning out" to escape our physical realities.

Let's Play Interact! Part 1: The Questions

Here's how it goes: I'll give you the scenario; you'll guess what most likely happens next; then I'll be back in a few days with the answers so you can check yourself. The list is long, so if you have an ADHD lifestyle like I do, read what you have time for. You'll get the point.

#1
A married man notices that his co-worker looks very pretty today. It's not a sexual thought, nor would he ever cheat. He thinks he would make the co-worker feel good by saying something. What happens next?

#2
A wide-eyed college-bound kid sits waiting for his flight. An old, unaccompanied man sits in an adjacent seat...
What happens next?

#2.1
... The gate attendant announces "all aboard" but the old man doesn't seem to notice...
What happens next?

#2.2
... The flight gets underway. The kid wonders if the old man got on the flight. It makes him think of his grandma who lives way down in Florida...
What happens next?

#2.3
... The kid finds his seat and starts reading his book. The lady in the next seat smiles to herself. He reminds her of her son. And that book is one she really loved...
What happens next?

#2.4
... The lady in the row in front of them just can't get her baby to stop crying as the plane takes off. It's driving everyone nuts.
What happens next?

#3
Three businessmen sit at a bar after work, bullshitting and watching the sidewalk outside for eye candy. A roughly dressed woman with a white cane stands waiting to cross the street...
What happens next?

#3.1
... The walk sign comes and goes several times but she just stands there, looking more and more agitated, starting to draw the attention of passers-by.
What happens next?

#4
A mom is driving home on the freeway. She sees a car ahead weaving between cars, riding their bumpers, and jockeying from lane to lane aggressively...
What happens next?

#4.1
... She stops at the grocery store, where she sees a young guy store employee eyeing a young customer...
What happens next?

#4.2
... She also spots a familiar face in the produce aisle. Both their sons go to the same school. She wonders if the rumors are true. Is the lady really filing for divorce? Those poor kids!...
What happens next?

#5
You get in a cab and find a cell phone on the seat ... and an iPod.
What happens next?

#6
Your co-worker in the next cube has been grumbling all morning. He can't figure out how to get the darn computer to do what it's supposed to.
What happens next?

#7
A gay man orders his daily Starbucks Latte. He thinks the barista guy is definitely cute, maybe gay, but there's no way to be sure.
What happens next?

#8
You're taking your date to a movie. You're in line to buy popcorn. The show is about to start but the girl behind the counter is SO SLOW ...
What happens next?

#8.1
...You're finally next in line. The guys in front of you is wasting time fumbling for exact change.
What happens next?

#9
Joey's taking his turn walking the dog. He can't help but notice how much garbage there is on the street. Too bad there's no garbage can around.
What happens next?

#10
Another of those commercials comes on TV with the starving kids in Africa.
What happens next?

#11
Four friends at a game are trying to take their own picture.
What happens next?

#12
On the subway platform, a pair of confused tourists stare at the map and argue.
What happens next?

#13
A tipsy guy at the ballpark is trying to carry too many beers and brats back to his friends. He keeps spilling on other people and nearly dropping the dogs. People are getting mad.
What happens next?

#14
The news reports another record-breaking Federal budget deficit. Then the go back to the "breaking news" about the dresses that will be worn at the Oscars.
What happens next?

#15
A teen sees another teen jamming to his iPod and wonders what the guy's listening to.
What happens next?

#16
You pass a car parked on the side of the freeway.
What happens next?

Buy! Sell! #1: Prediction Markets Intro

Back in the Nineties while we were still undergrad pimple-poppers, I came to know a coke-laced gambling-addicted, insomniac who traded junk bonds at night while the rest of us studied, drank, and slept. Then there was my roommate who bounced back and forth between joining the Freemen, the FBI, and the Kosovo Jihad.

Who am I kidding ... it was NYU ... everyone was popping pills. But I digress.

The 3 of us could hardly come from more different backgrounds and had our own wacky ideas but had remarkably arrived at the same spot (philosophically, geographically, and temporally) on many levels. I've always appreciated the reassurance of their conviction, even when we were all leaning against a heady wind. Not immaterially, we all shared a deep and long-standing respect for Reagan.

It was the insomniac who first introduced me to prediction markets. What started as a nighttime obsession became a side job became a career, but from day one he never could leave work at the office. Between the office elevator and the subway station he'd be on his cell placing bets on anything and everything that the future might hold. Watching sports with these guys was mentally exhausting. With every point or foul, there was a flurry of cell phones as they all speed-dialled their brokers with a new futures order. Ten thousand at niner and an eighth on Shaq to drink water instead of Gatorade in the fourth! Hedge that with a short on Schumacher to pit before lap 30 at seventy-five spot naught! Rah! Lift that offer you cocksucker! How's the wife? Did she recover from last night yet? Remind me to buy you a drink next time we're in Vegas!

As is the tragedy of evolution, humans hardly even make trading decisions anymore (thanks a mil, modellers!), much less have a broker on speed dial for such interaction. Going going gone the way of the Yellow River dolphin and the open-outcry pits.

I don't think these guys knew that the academics had not fully conceptualized prediction markets yet. I know they didn't give a rat's ass. But intellectualized it was; then automated; then commercialized; then specialized. Corporations (especially HP and GE) started to steal the idea to help them in their sales prediction, as well as new product and marketing campaign creation. Who needs employees at all anymore? But I digress.

Now come vanity markets such as Bet2Give where you put real money in, but any winnings are automatically donated to charity. This conveniently avoids the legality question of betting on the future. As their FAQ says If you bet wrong and lose, your money will still go to worthy causes... but chosen by others. Hmm... I wonder if I can place a bet on how long it'll take the IRS to figure all this out?

Will bets on future events become an asset class in the same way bets on future cash streams or future prices have?

So I'm in. I'll be trading the future and reporting back on my riches ... all of which will be routed to the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation for this first round.

There's a twist. Prediction markets are still young, and as such, they're very thin. Not a lot of activity, and not a lot of options available to reflect the nuances or breadth of one's comprehensive view of the future ... aka one's portfolio (of bets on future events) in market lingo. As such, I'll be publishing several "model portfolios" here from time to time under the "Buy!/Sell!" series title.

Compensating to Evolve

Humans are probably not unique in perceiving their inadequacies and trying to do something about it. One of the beauties of mother nature's genius is the elasticity of animals' behavior. Some more than others, but those of us critters who have survived a few hundred thousand years are pretty good at changing our behavior in response to our environment. It's all to further the species. We're each an experiment in the drive for survival. Those of us who make successful choices (survivalistically) are, on average, more likely to propagate their genetics and learned behaviors to the next generation of experiments.

We humans are particularly elastic in our behavior ... to a fault. We get so neurotic over our deficiencies (real or perceived) that we end up choosing remedies which make no sense at all.

Ever see a guy at a party make a totally bonehead move with a chick? One that would never, in a million years get him laid? What goes through your mind? Yup, "Desperate."

Ever seen a chick with more piercings than teeth? Maybe some tats and a bad attitude to go with it? "Desperate."

How about the sexy Hollywood type who makes a hundred mill in a couple years and then spends the next decade shuttling between court, rehab, and bed? Same word comes to mind for me. Desperate.


Your annoying brother-in-law with the constant need to best your every story. "You think YOU had it bad - I was raised by alligators!" Desperately desperate.

Or the guy whose whole identity is performing ridiculous death-defying stunts ... the bloodier the better. You know the dude: he was the one at the bar last night showing everyone his scabs and scars. Or maybe your little sister brought him to the family picnic. Double desperate.

However counter-productive one's choices end up being, if we take an evolutionary view, I don't think we can fault any individual for them. In them, we are switnessing one tiny slice of the overall attempt by the species to further survival. One's choices may seem illogical, harmful, or otherwise counter-survivalistic on an individual level. We can blame them on uncontrollable forces, our genes, or our parents. However, looked at from a macro species perspective, they are quite useful. Perhaps the likelihood of their success is low, but it's quite possible that one of these wacky, counterintuitive choices could lead to a whole new evolutionary branch and extend the extinction countdown timer by another few hundred thousand years. Otherwise, how would we ever get bizarre-o critters like the dancing Bird of Paradise or the Anglerfish or the Bloodbelly (see pics).

Frankly, even at an individual level, I see legitimate (dare I say rational?) reasons for such actions. Freaks and grumpy moments aside, humans are a social species. In fact, we've evolved down that track to the point that we are inter-dependent. In order to live the lives we are accustomed to, we need the support and cooperation of many, many other members of society. We need to be allowed to be part of the clan, which means we need to be relevant to it. We're not comfortable unless we "carve out our place" by making our own unique contribution. Like Peter Gabriel, we all "want to be wanted ... need to be needed ... love to be loved" If one of us perceives that he's not desired by the group, he changes himself. If that doesn't work, he tries something else a bit further "out there." He's barking up the wrong tree, but instead of trying a different one, he just barks louder and more desperately. Eventually, if he never feels that warm fuzzy comfort zone, he's off doing things that are horrifically bizarre and destructive.

Bottom line, he's trying to compensate. Just as we all do.

The straight-A student who cries at not getting to be editor of the school newspaper.

Those boisterous inner-city teens on the subway who vomit a steady, 100-decibel stream of profanity until they reach their station ...

The Chinese immigrant's daughter who started ballet at 4, piano at 8, tennis at 12, Harvard at 16 and coke at 20.

The un-athletic momma's boy who ends up wearing skirts and high heels, getting groped by men in dirty clubs by the time he's 21.

The bond trader who drops fifty grand on an inside straight draw with his co-workers in Vegas. Weekly.

The 80-year-old bazillionaire who is still at the office by 6am daily.

The kid-of-a bazillionaire who can't but anounce that fact to everyone he meets.

The gay guy who's been to 50 countries on 5 continents (and had a conquest in each) by the age of 30.

The governor who gets caught with the ten-grand hooker (finally)

The chick who keeps going back to her abusive husband.

All desperate for something. All trying to compensate. All trying to overachieve in their own right in a desperate, breathless race for relevancy. I understand; I sympathize ... 'cause I'm a lot like 'em, and neither are you.

Photo credits:
Bloodbelly, Anglerfish - Discovery.com http://dsc.discovery.com/tv/blue-planet/view-vote/view-vote.html