Showing posts with label Cars. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Cars. Show all posts

Wednesday, August 19, 2015

Chinese Car Trolls

In case anyone was still worried about Chinese world domination ... this is the kind of innovation the country is betting their future on:
Youxia Ranger X

http://www.bbc.com/autos/story/20150818-youxia-ranger-x-is-totally-not-a-tesla

"We are no longer surprise by Cinese carmakers paying legally questionable homage to successful Western models"

"The driver interacts with that system through a vertically oriented 17in touchscreen display, much like the driver of a Model S would interact with that car’s vertically oriented 17in display. Small world. "

The idiots who sent this bunch of posers their investment dollars got exactly what they deserved. You are what you invest in.

Thursday, February 23, 2012

2020 Sports Car Concept

I am a massive admirer of Jason Castriota and his design work. He is the future of automotive design. Inspired by his vision, I offer this, my own design for the sports car of 2020.





Alternate soundtrack version here for the unblocked.

Saturday, December 13, 2008

What's REALLY in the National Interest?

Sad that Congress or the President would have to:

  1. School the car makers on PR. The private plane thing was pure melodrama ... but how'd they not see that coming? For chrissake, how much have these guys spent on advertisers, marketers, spinsters?
  2. Dictate glaringly obvious management strategies such as Bob Corker's 3-part plan: negotiating with debt holders; forcing management to innovate or get out of the way; and negotiating wages down to the market price.

I loved this ad-spoof that Autoblog put up recently. Blaming shitty cars is funny, but it's not really the issue. Kias aren't exactly Mercedeses, but they sell just fine ... AND at a profit. Were the car co's not so terribly hamstrung by a hundred years of collective bargaining and tacit-to-explicit government support on many levels, they hopefully would have been intelligent and ballsy enough to make the necessary business decisions (product innovation being but one) long ago. As it is, Washington has to spoon-feed them the most basic business life-support in the form of cash and directives.

Romney, well placed at the nexus of Michigan and (failing) business, is clearly wrangling for Car Czar. I'm OK with that as long as he calls a spade a spade and changes his name to Wesley Mouch. I'll give ya a car czar: it's called the bankruptcy court. Out with the old detritus and in with the new.

I guess I should be a little gentler on governmental ineffectiveness. It's not ALWAYS bad. At least their ineptitude at getting things done has (so far) forestalled the ridiculous waste of my future tax dollars.

The argument that "all the other countries are doing it, so we should" is so juvenile to refute, I can only take a fatherly tone in response: "If everyone else jumped into the Grand Canyon, would you?" Actually, the correct (and my favorite) response is this: "Great! Buy more foreign cars then!" If Japan, China, or Germany is willing to government-subsidize those companies, this is the same as a government rebate to US buyers of their cars ... provided by other countries, and thus free to the US. It is a straight transfer of wealth from German or Japanese taxpayers to US consumers. In these economic times, what could be better??

And then there's the argument that it's government-provided health care abroad that cripples the US manufacturers. If only GM didn't have to provide insurance, they'd be fine ... right? Guys, don't say that one too loudly or you might scare off Mercedes, Honda, Toyota, and the other foreign companies who manufacture here in the US ... and actually make money at it!

Or how about the "strategic industry" argument, that says domestic heavy industry is in the national interest, for example in case of war. By this argument, our national interest is already a complete basket case. We are not a country which can throw up mile-high steel walls and continue our way of life in a vacuum:

  • Our economy relies on foreign buyers of our goods and services. Suddenly absent these, we'd certainly undergo some length of depression.
  • Our economy relies on imported labor to support our domestic production of goods, services, and intellectual capital. Without dishwashers, strawberry pickers, IT consultants, physicians, and physics PhDs (just to name a few), our domestic economy would falter on multiple levels. Cost of production would shoot up, prices would skyrocket (or red ink would flow), lines would grow long, quality of service would suffer, as would our ability to innovate.
  • Our economy relies on a vast array of imports. We could not support our current demand for anything from TVs to computers to sushi to gym shoes solely based on domestic supply. Let's be clear: I'm not saying we COULDN'T produce those things. We haven't forgotten how. We just couldn't make/cultivate enough of them cheap enough to keep prices at a manageable level.
  • Even our national security, and that of our citizens abroad, cannot be 100% guaranteed by our many current forces of persuasion. We rely on neighbors, friends, allies, and enemies alike for some explicitly or tacitly agreed level of security assistance. Calling all the troops back home to stand shoulder-to-shoulder on the border simply wouldn't guarantee safety, as we've seen many different ways in the past few decades.
  • Even in case of war, should we decide GM, Ford, and Chrysler need to stop making SUVs and switch to tanks, it could not be done immediately. There would be a massive retooling and engineering period before this could be executed, just as there would be if we had to ramp up production from a much leaner auto-industry.

Bottom line, the George Washington-style bunker mentality didn't even work in HIS time, much less now. Obama is wrong on many things, but here he's right. Our national interest, our future prosperity and security can ONLY be furthered with deep, ubiquitous engagement with our fellow Earthlings. If you need any further evidence why, Tom Friedman's mantra "hot, flat, and crowded" pretty much sums it up.

Thursday, December 11, 2008

Blog Shout Out: Bailing out the Piano Industry

I couldn't have said it better myself, so I won't. One of my favorite bloggers, Jeffery Tucker over at the Mises Institute places our current, and beloved, federal decision-making in all it's ridiculous splendor in his recent post "The End of the US Piano Industry" I highly recommend reading it.

He even goes out on a limb enough to suggest that we must comply with ... ugh, don't say it ... [cringe, eek] ... reality.

Economics demands forward motion, a conforming to the facts on the ground and a relentless and realistic assessment of the relationship between cost and price, supply and demand. We must learn to love these forces in society because they are the only things that keep rationality alive in the way we use resources. Without them, there would be nothing but waste and chaos, and eventual starvation and death. We simply cannot live outside economic reality.
Here here, Jeff. Well done.

Mark Perry quoted the article on his (also awesome) blog. One recent comment starts "You gotta love the Austrians [Nik: the economists, not the citizens]. They make complex things look very simple..." Sadly the commenter then runs right off the rails, saying "They do this by avoiding the truly complex questions." he then goes on to rant about issues which, to be generous, I'll call tangentially related. So to Machiavelli1999 I say this: "Sometimes simple really is enough. Dumbass."

Monday, December 08, 2008

Containers and Car Lots

When people used to ask me about the state of the US economy, especially vis-a-vis other countries, I'd take them out to Port Newark, NJ. It's not hard to size up the situation there: Huge stacks of empty shipping containers meant that the dollar was strong and the US economy was perking right along. Empty lots meant that the economy and/or the dollar was weak and there wasnt much economic activity.

Well, here's rule three: if those lots are, instead, crammed with thousands of unwanted cars, we've got oversupply. The economy is tanking so fast they can't turn the boats around in time. Prices will have to fall (deflation anyone?), losses will have to be absorbed, inventories will have to settle down to normal levels. This all will take time.
And "time" is really what this whole panicked crisis mania is all about. Things will return to normal sooner or later. If we collectively thought it would take a week, nobody would be panicking. I can wait a week to buy a new car. But to wait a year or more would be painful, indeed.

So there's the bottom line: economic pain will be defined in terms of time. Patience, as always, will be a virtue.

Monday, November 17, 2008

Yeah, What He Said ... Friedman Edition

Thomas Friedman nailed our auto-industry bailout to the wall on Meet the Press yesterday:

"I see no plan, no reason to suggest that these people who drove this industry into complete ditch havea plan to get it out in the long term and not come back in 6 months for another $25 billion ... what was Detroit's plan two years ago? ... It was to subsidize gasoline at $1.99 a gallon ... that was their idea of innovation ... it was like a crack dealer offering subsidized crack rather than going to a clinic to get off the drug. And who was the enabler of that? It was the Carl Levins, all of the Michigan delgation ... where was their outrage two years ago about getting them to be more innovative, getting them on top of the energy-efficiency question. They have been enabling the destruction of this industry ... so show me a plan, show me a plan that says if we give you the $25 billion, you're actually going to change. Remember, we're going to charge that $25 billion on our kids' Visa cards ..."

BTW, Michigan, the auto industry, and crack seem to be frequent bedfellows. Check out this article from July. Silly people, get with it. Michigan is a meth state these days!

Wednesday, October 10, 2007

What Will Tomorrow Bring: Car In-dash Computers

I almost feel foolish making this prediction, since it seems so obvious. It has even been "prototyped" (read: proto-hyped) for years. Hell, they even put an iMac into a VeeDub on Pimp My Ride 2 years ago.

Nevertheless... by the time you sell your current car, you might find a REAL, fully-functioning PC instead of a CD player just above your A/C controls. There will be growing pains; mark my words some hapless car company will try to build something proprietary and locked-down. They will fail, and the industry will learn how it's gotta be. OR they can just read on .... It's gotta:

  • Be Open
  • Be price-competitive. They charge $1500 for a nav system; there's no reason they can't install a whole laptop for that price.
  • Be Powerful. Well, as powerful as your average laptop today. 1.xxGhz and 50GB should do.
  • Have a proven and extensible OS: either Linux, Windows, MacOS, or Symbian.
  • Be able to use multiple interface modalities, available transparently to all applications in all contexts. Users should be able to switch at will among the modalities:
    • Voice enabled
    • Voice-to-text interpreter
    • Text-to-voice reader
    • Touch screen
    • Joystick slash trackball slash navigation nob
    • Hide-away wireless keyboard
    • PC remote control (think firefly)
  • Have webcams built in (interior-facing for communications apps, exterior facing to record the driver's-eye-view, rear-facing for backing up)
  • Have (or connect to the vehicle's) front and rear bumper proximity sensors
  • Have GPS built-in
  • Have multiple connection modalities built-in. It should be able to switch among them automatically and transparently to the user:
    • Wi-Fi
    • Bluetooth
    • GRPS and EDGE, capable of using any of the major US providers
  • Also have the ability to act as a wireless access point for those in the car with their own laptops
  • Have USB connection points (used to connect iPods, cameras, etc ... and also to charge cellphones, etc)
  • Have a solid-state hard drive
  • Be aware of who is driving the car. Specifically. Some manufacturers do this via weight on the seat, others via a chip in the key (where everyone has their own key). An RF chip-embedded card in everyone's wallet would fit the bill, as would voice or fingerprint recognition. Alternatively, it could ID your cell phone using Bluetooth.
  • Be able to support multiple applications simultaneously on multiple screens, networked throughout the vehicle. If this causes difficulty, the alternative can be to run multiple, low-spec computers in the back seat, networked to a more powerful "server" up front.

Users would be able to install any of the standard applications available for the chosen OS. Minimally, they'd want:

  • Web Browser
  • Email (web mail, Notes, Outlook, etc)
  • Music Player (iTunes, internet radio, podcasts, satellite radio, etc)
  • Games
  • Video Player (DVD, mpeg, streaming internet video, Sirius satellite TV)

Above and beyond that, based on this platform, there will be a new market for apps. The obvious killers would be:

  • Google Navigation: [[ See earlier blog post ]]
  • CarLog: Accessing the vehicle's internal computer to present:
      • Stats (hours and miles driven, average mpg, average mph, location history, etc). These stats would be available for each driver as well as the car, the trip, past trips, etc. To allay Big Brother fears, each user should be able to reset, erase or disable the collection of his own data.
      • Performance mode: 0-60 timer, current hp output (all with history)
      • Maintenance Management: Alerting the user when scheduled maintenance is due. To the extent possible, this should be adjusted based on self-awareness sensors which would look at the current condition of the oil (using specific weight measurements or translucency), tires (using tread-depth sensors), air conditioning (using chemical composition measurement), battery (using resiliency and peak charge measurement), range (using gas levels), etc.
      • As an option, users could volunteer to put this data in a "black box" which would disable their ability to clear data and would regularly upload it (securely) to an independent, trusted site. They could then selectively choose to release the data (as people do with medical records). For example, an insurance company might offer lower rates based on your good driving record as recorded by the app (miles driven, frequency of tailgating (speed-calibrated), % of time speeding, % of time parking in a high risk area, % of time driving below 32 deg, % of time driving at night). One might even use this in a court case. Naturally, protection would have to be placed on the data to prevent hacking ... and also subpoena-ing. An arguement could be made that the 5th Ammendment might apply to disclosure of this info.
  • GreaseMonkey CarDoc: This would access the car's internal computer to read in any error codes and offer a "help" function which presents:
      • A full description of the error as well as common causes
      • A step-by-step diagnosis and resolution path. There should be pictures and animations.
      • Phone numbers presented for the manufacturer's care line (OnStar, etc) and the closest dealer (using the GPS, a specific POI db, as well as Bluetooth capabilities). Additionally, it could upload exact location and relevant error info to the dealer to expedite the call.
  • Interact!: A communication tool which gives a single user interface for the user's existing e-Mail, Fax, SMS, IM, and Voicemail. Based on the current context (user in car or away, car moving or not, interaction is urgent or low-pri, etc), the application would manage these "interactions" differently. For example, when an email comes in, the app would follow a decision tree to determine what to do:
        • Is the car moving?
        • What is the communication modality? Phone? Email? SMS?
        • Is it for the driver or someone else? If it's the driver, the notification needs to be audible ... and/or delayed
        • Is someone on the phone currently? If so, the notification might be a chime or just delayed
        • Is the email urgent or from a high-priority sender? If yes, perhaps the system asks if it should read the message aloud immediately rather than just playing a tone
        • etc.
      • This, of course, requires:
        • User-awareness (can select from a list of people in the car based on above-mentioned ID strategy)
        • DEEP Bluetooth integration
        • Blackberry integration
        • Corporate and POP3/IMAP email integration
        • Its own address book and calendar, but also integration with major existing applications (Outlook, etc)
      • The ability to access all functions and user data via the car's computer as well as any internet browser ... and perhaps even any Symbian or Blackberry device
      • Interaction Tracker: tracking and displaying statistics on interactions with each contact (date and time of each call, email, etc)
      • The ability for users to indicate how frequently they'd like to interact with any given contact. The system would have a countdown timer which would alert the user if they've neglected the person for too long. Every time an interaction takes place, the timer is reset.
      • TopicTagger: automatic tagging of each interaction with topical keywords. These would be derived, for example, from the subject line of emails, or from the most commonly used word in emails/text messages/phone calls (yes, it would be able to recognize spoken words). the user could, of course, add their own tags via any of the input modalities.
      • Calendar-based alerts. The lead time (time between alert and appointment/event) would be automatically determined based on the user's physical distance from the stated meeting site.
      • Public Safety Emergency Alerts (specific either to the current location or current people in the vehicle)
  • CrazyDriver: using the forward- and rearward-facing cams, would give the driver the ability to hit a button which saves the last minute of video in a package for either later viewing or transmission to law enforcement.. Ideally, it would have the ability to recognize license plate numbers automatically and tag videos
  • NewsReader: Either as a component of the media player, or separately, a tool which downloads news feeds (RSS, etc) and auto-selects those most likely to interest the driver and passengers. Then reads the article aloud, giving the driver the ability to vocally skip, tag for later revew, and rate the article
  • InstaFeedback: This app would use GPS to realize when users park the car near a store/restaurant/hotel/etc. When they return to the car (computer is turned back on), they are prompted with a short-list of nearby locations to rate. In as little as 2 "clicks", they pick the place, and enter a rating (0-5 stars). If the want, they can enter comments (voice or text) as well.
  • RadarNet: Controversial, but inevitable ... the ability to link to the car's radar/laser detector to identify speed traps. Then, the ability to network with other cars ahead and behind to propigate the news about where smokeys are.
  • Blog-on-the-go: Ability to post voice/text blogs. Ability to combine with the vehicle's cams and saved pix. Text, of course, should be create-able via keyboard or voice recognition.
  • Doberman: Uses cams to take a snapshot of whoever starts the car. These snapshots are stored for a few weeks and regularly uploaded to a web site. On one hand, this could be used to watch one's kids. On the other, it could be used to positively ID a thief or carjacker. Using the outward-pointed cams and a proximity or contact detector, vandals might also be spotted.

    In terms of marketing, it seems natural that there are two initial adopters: high-end luxury sedan segment (think Maybach and 7-series) and technophile twentysomething dorky trendy segment (V-dub, Prius, Scion, etc). From there, it should quickly propigate down the price point spectrum to fam-wagons (Suburbans, minivans). From there, market permeation can flow based on demand, freeing the developers create enhanced software (backed up by enhanced HW) for several niche markets, such as:

    • Long-Haul Trucking / Commercial Vehicles
      • Fleet Manager giving home office info about the fleet (location, rig stats, drive time, etc)
      • Enhacements to navigation looking for truck stops and also determining the best route based on tolls, road grade (to minimize fuel consumption), weather, and a list of pickups/drop offs
      • Clearinghouse of possible jobs
      • Enhancements to GreaseMonkey for big rigs
    • Bus/Van/Shuttle ... perhaps even Airlines
      • Fleet Manager
      • Bluetooth auto-pay functionality. Each passenger's fare would be computed once they exit the vehicle based on their wait (compared to average), the distance travelled, the popularity of their route (if they pick their suburban house as the drop-off, this would be more expensive than a local park-n-ride even if the distances were similar). This could be adjusted based on the number of passengers in the current vehicle who pick the same drop-off, encouraging people to group themselves prior to boarding based on destination area.
      • Interactive real-time info on waiting passengers' locations
      • Ability for passengers to input their desitnation once onboard via preset preferences, terminals, voice, or SMS. Based on this, and the locations of waiting passengers, traffic, etc, the correct route would be contstantly re-calculated and each person's wait time could be indicated. An enhancement to this would be to track each passenger's wait time (both before pickup and en-route) and constantly recompute route to minimize the average wait time for all passengers. The current (or recent average) wait times could be indicated online and at the bus stops so people could decide which mode of transport will be most efficient for them. They could choose to wait for the bus, pick a different bus company, take a taxi, walk to the subway, etc.
      • Feedback to dispatch, who would have heatmaps, stats, etc available. Possibility of automating dispatch entirely
      • Enhancements to entertainment systems to provide each passenger with the ability to access the internet, games, and entertainment. An enhancement would be to have automatica Bluetooth links between each passenger's cell phone and their computer terminal so they could access a public-transport-specific version of Interact!
    • Military
      • Much lower-cost Aegis connection (and higher functionality, with more feedback to central)
      • Real-time battle info
      • Contact lists / chain-of-command charts
      • Live translation
    • Car rental
      • Fleet Manager adjusted specifically for rental car needs
      • Sightseeing manager enhancements
      • Ability to create and publish vacation logs (voice, typing, video, pictures) on the go
      • Ability to adjust rental contract online (change dropoff, extend contract, change insurance, etc) without having to spend interminable minutes on the phone waiting for a customer service rep. If a small thermal printer were added to the car, it could actually produce its own receipts, saving rental companies from the need to have an employee check-in each car upon return.
    • Emergency Servies / Law Enforcement
      • Enhanced Emergency dispatch
      • Online medical info including individuals' medical records
      • Online criminal info for police
      • Online building plans for fire dept

    Friday, August 24, 2007

    The Annual Car Orgy

    If ever you want a tiny firsthand glance at how ridiculous humans can get when they're endowed with inconceivable wealth ...

    ... go to Carmel, California in the middle of August. There, if you're lucky, you will find Pebble Beach Concours car show. There is no better or bigger display of car fanaticism on the planet, especially the kind of fanaticism that's expressed by the expenditure of absolutely senseless amounts of money (because they CAN) on pure toys. This stuff has no practical use whatsoever, and that's kind of the point. The median income of attendees is WELL into six-figures. Everyone owns multiple cars ... and houses ... and boats ... and probably a plane. Don't quote me on that, but you get the point.

    Because of the demographic of the show, every "luxury" vendor (cars and otherwise) is there. So, aside from the ridiculous pumpkin-and-sage pants everyone wears there, what was all the rage among these famously fickle folks?

    At the very top segment, the key is uniqueness. Cars are at a point where there's little additional benefit to more size and more power. And I'd say design is a huge driver right now; pure beauty also seems to have fallen off peoples' top-10 list. It's got to have an "interesting" or "evocative" design. Evoking what ? ... I don't think anybody knows. Bottom line, it's got to be attention-grabbing. To do that, it's got to be unique.

    The breathtaking development of "mass affluence" over the past 30 years drives this. Over that period, the % of people below poverty line hasn't changed much, but people have moved in droves from upper-middle class to multi-millionaires. So, now the rich and very-rich are feeling a little bit ordinary. They are therefore driven to buy stuff that makes them feel different, unique. Thus "limited" everything is popular. Aston Martin's DB9 and Vanquish are just not special enough anymore ... you have to have the Zagato DB9 (of which only 99 were ever built). Ford build 4000 of their awesome "GTs" and then stopped even though they had a remaining waitlist of 1000 customers. Ferrari made only 400 uber-exclusive Enzos. They didn't even open an order book or place the cars in dealerships; rather, they sent invitations to certain existing customers. But that, too, just wasn't exclusive enough for some. Maserati (owned by Ferrari) was thus commissioned to use the Enzo platform to design a new, even more uber car, called the MC12. The factory made 50, with all purchasers hand-chosen beforehand ... Even THAT wasn't exclusive enough for James Glickenhaus. In an audacious attempt to buy his way out of an extreme case of inferiority complex, he acquired an Enzo in the secondary market (at more than double the original price) and tore the body off. He then had the world's top automotive design shop Pininfarina create a new, entirely custom body. From scratch. The car is called the P4/5 and "was commissioned as a modern homage to great Ferrari racing cars."

    BTW, that's pronounced oh-mazh ... Dah-ling.

    What else went over well at the show:



    • There's lots of enviro-talk:


      • Tesla - a new all-electric car based on a Lotus platform which has roughly Ferrari-level performance and costs under $150,000. 245 miles on a charge.

      • Priuses are also very popular there as a statement

    • Fractional car club membership ... like NetJets for Ferraris. NetJets, incidentally is even more popular this year.

    • Customized ... everything. One billionaire bought a Ferrari Enzo (the most extraordinary sports car ever) for $1.5m, tore off the body, and had Pininfarina build an entirely custom body for him. Shaq bought a Lamborghini Gallardo and had it extended 8 inches to give him better leg room.

    • 50's and 60's American muscle cars. Not the fastest, not the prettiest, not the anything-est anymore, but these cars get the highest prices at auction right now. Why? Every 60-year-old self-made millionaire out there is trying to regain his youth by buying "that car" they wanted but couldn't afford when they were 16. All these cars have to be customized with special wheels, special interiors, and especially special paint jobs. It's a Cali thing.

    • Ferrari 612 Scaglietti - Ferrari's largest, most "user friendly" car ever, typically Ferrari with hand-sewn engangered-wildebeast leather or whatever, but also full of German-sedan style creature comforts and gizmos like full automatic transmission, GPS, iPod connection, in-dash tire pressure display. The car, of course has a 6 liter V12 engine which must get like 15mpg, but it's not the fastest Ferrari due to size. Basically, people own this car for the status of the brand, not for the car itself. It is no sports car.